[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181636
SWODY1
SPC AC 181633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30
SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30
NW P28 25 E RSL 15 ENE MHK 15 NW SZL 30 S OTM 45 SSE CGX 30 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE
JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35
SSE SHR 25 NE WRL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 25 E FAR 25
E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25
WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25
ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SW END 40 NNW CDS 40 W AMA 30 NNW LHX 10 SW 4FC
40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW
BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON
ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PAC NW EJECTS NEWD AS AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.  MORE SUBTLE...LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH NOW SUPPORTING MCS OVER MO WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY.

...OZARKS ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
TAIL END OF MCS IS BEING FED BY STRONG SWLY LLJ ANCHORED OVER 
CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING.  THIS JET AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 18Z-21Z...BEFORE BACKING TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...WITH THE THREATS OF HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS HEATING
DESTABILIZES WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG
AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...TO THE SOUTH OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS NRN IND/IL
/REFERENCE SWOMCD 736/.  LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ATTM...ACTIVITY
IN MO IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 6KM ON AREA VWP AND PROFILERS/.  THIS
SUGGESTS SHEAR AHEAD OF COLD POOL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
LINES/CLUSTERS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z NEAR THE MID
MS RIVER...AND ALONG COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO CENTRAL IND...WITH
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING EWD BETWEEN THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...
INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LOWER 60F
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES BY THE
MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
FROM PA NWD AS MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS NRN NEW ENGLAND. 
COMBINATION OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
FROM CLUSTERS/SMALL LINES WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NRN
CHESAPEAKE TODAY...STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS OVER SRN MT TODAY. ENOUGH CLEARING  SHOULD OCCUR
OVER ERN ID INTO SWRN/SRN MT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP.  UPSLOPE/SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY INTO ERN CO/ERN WY
AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN WY/CO...ANY STORM WHICH CAN
DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AS
THEY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB AFTER
DARK ALONG INCREASING SLY LLJ.

...KS/WRN MO...
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS COMPLICATED ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG OUTFLOW
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS PUSHES SWD INTO SERN KS/CENTRAL MO...AND MERGES
WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. 
THOUGH CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...LLJ WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND ERN OK...WHICH WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY
DIRECTION AND INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP. ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE OF
STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.