[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
BIL 40 E LWT 45 ESE ISN 50 NW JMS 20 N ABR 15 NNW 9V9 50 NE AIA 45
SSW IML 25 E LIC 20 ENE DEN 55 SW GCC 15 SSE BIL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35
NNE SSU 30 SE SDF 40 N DYR 15 S UNO 30 WNW HRO 15 E BVO 35 ESE P28
35 NW P28 10 NNE HSI 20 WSW FNB 30 SW P35 35 WSW BRL 45 SSE CGX 30 E
TOL ...CONT... 30 WSW ERI 25 SW BGM ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSX 10 ESE CLL
40 WSW TYR 10 E PRX 20 NNE PGO 25 SSW MKO END 50 E GAG 25 ESE GAG 25
SSW LTS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10 SW 4FC
20 NE RKS 10 ESE MLD 20 SSW OWY 70 WSW BNO 20 N ONP ...CONT... 30 W
RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E OTG 35 ESE FOD 30 WNW MLI CGX 15 SE DTW
...CONT... 20 SW BUF 45 WSW ALB 15 ESE RUT 20 E BML 20 ESE CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HSE 20 S FAY 25
SSE AGS 35 SE TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...

...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PA/OH/IND AND IL
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NJ WWD TO SRN OH TO NEAR
STL BY 12Z.  AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY EWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS BECOME
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
 FURTHER AIR MASS STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING... THOUGH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF MODERATE SBCAPE WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 752.

ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED IN SEVERE
ACTIVITY...THE WELL ORGANIZED MCV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
IL...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO OH TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL IND TO
CENTRAL PA.

...NEB/KS/MO...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO WWD TO
CENTRAL KS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...BUT IS CAPPED PER 00Z RAOBS. 
SWLY NOCTURNAL LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-50 KT
ACROSS WRN TX/WRN OK...AND NOSE INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS.  RESULTANT
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN KS INTO MO...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING FARTHER NWD INTO SRN NEB.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES /WRN MT/...WITH PRIMARY
THREAT BEING ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.  MEANWHILE...SELY
25-30 KT SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NEB NWWD INTO ERN WY/MT HAS
RESULTED IN LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN MT
AND SWRN ND...AND 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS INTO ERN WY.  DESPITE
EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
SUPPORTING AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL CO NWD TO SERN MT WITH
MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADS
ENEWD ABOVE MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS PER STRENGTHENING LLJ.  ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN MT/NWRN WY MAY CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WAA REGIME INCREASES ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ.  MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT...AS THE INCREASING LLJ VEERS TO SLY.  35-45 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A
HAIL THREAT ALONG MCS TRACK.

..PETERS.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.