[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170603
SWODY1
SPC AC 170600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
CLE 40 SW SZL 25 SW ICT LBL 20 E COS 45 SSW DGW 10 WSW CDR 30 ESE
AIA 20 NE GRI 25 ESE MCW 50 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB
30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45 NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... VRB 50
ENE FMY 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE
DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 SSW STL 10 W ALN 25 NE SGF 25 WSW JLN 20
WSW PNC 35 ENE GAG 35 W GAG 45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S
P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 ESE TCC 40 NNE CAO 30 NNE EGE 45 ENE
VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA
...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 NNW RAP 40 SSE
PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW ELO ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W
ALB 20 NE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
WSWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY.  UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE ERN PAC BASIN WILL
SWING SEWD INTO NRN CA AND ORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...WEAK MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLYS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND GRTLKS.  ONE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN DAKS
EARLY MONDAY TO THE NRN GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING/
OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM UPPER MI-NRN
WI-CNTRL MN EARLY MONDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE PROGRESS EWD
DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH.  BUT...TAIL END OF
SAME FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO
VLY...CNTRL PLAINS AND ERN CO. TO THE EAST...A WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS...
MONDAY MORNING LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ENEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND NRN GRTLKS.  AIR MASS ALONG SRN/ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION FROM SRN/ERN
IA INTO CNTRL/SRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
FAVORABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTMS CLUSTERS.  DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NE AS LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS NRN ILL AND
NRN IND DURING MONDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...THREAT FOR ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

...LOWER MO VLY WWD TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING CLOUDS/TSTMS AS A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN HEIGHTS OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BY
AFTERNOON...THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL KS TOWARD THE
LWR MO VLY.  PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LWR MO VLY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS WILL THEN LIKELY
BACKBUILD/DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE FRONT TO TRIPLE POINT OVER
WCNTRL/SWRN KS BY EVENING.  OTHER TSTMS COULD FORM IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/WY.

LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8
C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN THE THERMAL
RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL EXIST FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN KS.

DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN MO AND ERN KS.  HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT MONDAY.  STRONGER
STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.

...OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN THE OH VLY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  LONGEST-LIVED TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO FAVOR THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30
KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS COULD ROTATE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN CA/ORE...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN CA/ORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN NRN CA
AND ORE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.  THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN LONGER LIVED...ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY GIVE HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS...ENOUGH FOR A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT.

..RACY/BRIGHT.. 05/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.