[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171300
SWODY1
SPC AC 171257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
BUF 30 ESE FDY 40 SSE SPI 40 WSW CNU 20 NE EHA 25 NNE PUB 35 S LAR
40 NNE LAR 20 SW IML 35 ESE GRI RST 25 W ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 50 ENE FMY 55 SSW
MIA ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB 30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45
NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W ALB 20 NE ISP ...CONT...
10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 NNW
POF 25 WSW BLV 20 WNW SGF 25 E BVO 20 WSW PNC 40 ENE GAG 25 SW GAG
45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45
ESE TCC 40 N CAO 15 ENE ASE 45 ENE VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW
OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N
BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 SSE REJ 45 SSE PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW
ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...THROUGH CNTRL/SRN PLAINS......

...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MN. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SW MN SWWD TO SW NEB WILL
MOVE SWD AND EXTEND FROM CNTRL IA...SE NEB SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
THEN NWWD INTO ERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD
FROM A LEE LOW IN SW KS. THESE BOUNDARIES...AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND AS LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH STEEP  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO KS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS TRAVELING EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH PARTS OF KS. OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SUPPORTED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

FARTHER W OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO INTO SERN WY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING MOIST ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.


...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AS SURFACE
HEATING...DEEP MIXING AND CONVERGENCE WEAKEN CAP. THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.


...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN
CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD WITH
TIME...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING...CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING
FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND LINES/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
PARTS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE
WEAKER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION. EXPECTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...OR AND THROUGH EXTREME NRN CA...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES SUPPORTED
BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.