[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170109
SWODY1
SPC AC 170106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
RST 30 NE MHK 40 NE DDC 40 SSW DDC 20 N EHA 55 S GLD 10 N HLC 30 NE
ANW 15 ESE ATY 30 N MSP 35 N RST 20 SSE RST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CTB 25 NNW GTF
15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25 WSW HIB 30
NE ELO ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 40 SW RIC 30 NNE SOP 15 W AGS 60 N AYS
25 SE VLD 10 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP 50 NNE PSX 25 WSW
LFK 55 NNE LIT POF 15 NE CRW 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 30 NE MKE 25
NE MKC 10 ENE GAG 30 W DHT 20 NE TAD 25 NNW LIC 25 NW FCL 25 SSE RIW
40 WNW IDA 30 SSW PDT 25 NNE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VLY...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MO VLY NEWD INTO UPPER MS VLY...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NCNTRL NEB WITH A WARM
FRONT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN AND A DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
INTO SWRN NEB/WRN KS.  NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS...A FEW
TORNADIC...CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/NERN NEB.  THESE STORMS
RESIDE IN AN ENVIRONMENT RICH IN LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
 IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...LOW LCLS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50
KTS.

FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE MOSTLY EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR FORWARD
PROPAGATING SEGMENT FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO NCNTRL KS...MOVING
260/45-50 KTS. TAIL END OF THE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER
WCNTRL KS HAS BEEN FOCAL POINT FOR ANOTHER TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
UPSTREAM 00 UTC KDDC SOUNDING EXHIBITING A LARGE LOOPY HODOGRAPH AND
1500 J/KG MLCAPE.

STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VLY.  THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB VCNTY THE WARM FRONT.  EVOLUTION INTO
LEWPS/BOWS IS LIKELY AS NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND COLD POOL
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...50-60 KT SLY
LLJ AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ONE OR
MORE MCS/S THAT WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MN AND IA OVERNIGHT WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

MEANWHILE...50-60 KT LLJ WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO E-W ORIENTED
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL KS DURING THE
EVENING.  WHILE ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE MCS GRADUALLY MOVES
SSEWD.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. AS A
RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

..RACY.. 05/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.