[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162003
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
MRF 40 SE LIC 15 SW SNY 25 WNW AIA 35 NE CDR 20 SE PHP 35 NNE ATY 10
WSW STC 25 ENE MSP 35 N RST 30 SSE RST 45 WSW ALO 55 ESE OMA 25 WSW
BIE 30 N RSL 45 WSW RSL 20 WSW DDC 25 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP
50 NNE PSX 50 NE LFK 45 N GLH 15 N LOZ 25 WSW EKN 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE
NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX
40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... ELP 45 SSE ALS 50 N ALS 20 WNW CAG 25
SSE SUN 50 NNW BNO 10 S DLS 20 WSW SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 25 N CTB
25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25
WSW HIB 30 NE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 20 NE MTW 40
SSE OSH 15 NW MLI P35 25 NNE HUT 35 SSW P28 40 NW ABI 25 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SW MN
THROUGH SE SD INTO NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB
AND ERN CO. A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB
WHERE UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ALL OF THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND SWD AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR NW KS BUT SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED FARTHER EAST. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE SUPERCELLS
MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
STRONG. BECAUSE OF THIS...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. STILL
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...AND A POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS...W TX AND ERN NM AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SOLID LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SRN SD...CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING...MOVING EWD INTO SE
SD...ERN NEB...FAR IA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DROP OFF.


...VIRGINIAS/NC...

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.