[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161632
SWODY1
SPC AC 161629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
MRF ROW 55 SSE RTN 25 WNW LAA 30 S BFF 20 N CDR 30 NNE ATY 65 ENE
STC 30 N EAU 15 WNW LSE 25 E FOD 30 WSW LNK 25 ENE GCK 15 SSE LBL 15
ESE PVW 15 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 50 WSW HVR
3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 60 SW JMS FAR 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL
...CONT... 35 WNW ANJ 45 S ESC 25 W JVL 20 NE STJ 30 NNE P28 50 S
CDS 15 SW ABI 45 SSW BWD 15 WNW AUS 15 E CLL 25 NNE LFK 20 S LIT 30
NW EVV UNI 15 N MRB 20 SSE NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW
FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX 40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP
65 W COT ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 15 N ONM 40 NW RTN 30 WNW COS 15 SSW
4FC 35 NE GJT 35 SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. LOSES AMPLITUDE AND EJECTS A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE TODAY.  IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW NOW
OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR SNY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...WITH
INCREASING SLY FLOW ESTABLISHING A WARM FRONT NEWD INTO SERN SD/SRN
MN DURING THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...A DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER INTO FAR ERN NM/SWRN TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  MAIN LLJ LATER TONIGHT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
SLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN NEB
AND SRN SD THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD.  OTHER STORMS NOW
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEB ALONG ERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD
OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD NEWD INTO NERN
NEB ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS FURTHER ENHANCING THE HAIL
THREAT. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT NE-SW
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.

THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN ALONG WRN EDGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD.  STRONG
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN
BREAKING CAP ACROSS SWRN NEB/FAR WRN KS BETWEEN 20-22Z...SUPPORTING
RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY.  LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS MAY LIMIT ANY
PERSISTENT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO AREAS NEARER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB/SRN SD... POSSIBLY AS AN ORGANIZED LINE/BOW
ECHO...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TRANSITION INTO A LARGE HAIL THREAT AFTER
03-04Z ACROSS THE MID MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE DRY LINE INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX BY THE EARLY
EVENING...AS STRONG HEATING AND MODEST MOISTURE OVERLAP.  WEAK MCV
SLOWLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH
STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER NORTH /ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/...WLY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT.  THOUGH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS DRY LINE RETREATS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE VA TIDEWATER...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...
WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.