[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161256
SWODY1
SPC AC 161253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LSE
EAR 50 NW CDS 30 E CVS 10 NW TCC 40 SE SNY 25 SW BFF 30 NW CDR 40 NW
HON 40 SSW DLH 50 NE EAU LSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK
HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 10 NW RUT 25 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG FAY
35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR
75 NE BIL BIS 35 ESE JMS 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 65 E MQT
35 SSW ESC 25 W JVL 15 WNW STJ 30 NNE P28 30 SSE BGS 20 NW DRT
...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 35 WNW ONM 50 W RTN 20 NW COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 35
SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

...NEB AND SD THROUGH NW IA...MN AND WI...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MN SWWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. NRN
PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SRN PORTION WILL STALL TODAY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER CO WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER
UT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... PRESENCE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND
SD. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TIMING WRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS WILL BEGIN TO RECEIVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. THE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL
STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS CONTINUE EWD INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AS THEY
CONTINUE EWD...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SUPERCELL MODES...DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPDRAFTS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL
NEB/S CNTRL SD BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAINLY N OF
THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ADVECTS NWD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDITIONAL
UPON INITIATING A SURFACE BASED STORM THAT CAN TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP IN WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH.


...ERN CO....WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLE...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM ERN CO/ERN NM...SPREADING INTO WRN
KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.