[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151253
SWODY1
SPC AC 151250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 25 SSW GFK 40 S JMS 35 NNW MBG 15 SSE DIK P24 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE
MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX CKV 40 NW
LEX 25 WSW CMH 10 NNW CAK ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF
35 N LWT 55 SW GGW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35
ESE BKX 25 ENE BIE 20 N HUT AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15
WSW DUG 45 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW
OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND...

...ND...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE ESEWD
TODAY INTO SRN MANITOBA AND EXTREME NRN ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT. COLD AIR ALOFT (-23C AT 5 KM) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL (MLCAPE BELOW 800 J/KG) OWING TO LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MOST
OF THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND. ACTIVITY
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM
35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR MODES AS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES EWD. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH ERN OH...CNTRL TN
AND MS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH BREAKS FOR MANY AREAS TO RECEIVE
SURFACE HEATING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE
CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIANS. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER
AND WEAKEN AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S.
LEAVING WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST FLOW OVER THE WARM SECTOR. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING
FACTORS TO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANT
MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...SE NM AND SW TX...

ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS SW TX INTO SE NM. ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...VEERING PROFILES FROM THE
SFC-6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SD...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THEN CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CO AND SE WY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
EWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OWING TO
MEAGER INSTABILITY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
OVERNIGHT...MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB THROUGH SD.

..DIAL.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.