[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151625
SWODY1
SPC AC 151622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30
SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE
MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV
15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF
35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E
BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07
...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S
WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...

...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR
MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE
COAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE
FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY.  WITH THE STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET.  APPEARS PROBABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

...NRN PLAINS...
MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. 
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG
HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES
NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP TODAY.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE
WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
 MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN
TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.