[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150605
SWODY1
SPC AC 150601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT MCN VLD
GNV MLB ...CONT... GLS POE GLH DYR OWB CMH CAK ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB HVR GGW
OLF ISN 55 N MOT ...CONT... 75 NW CMX DLH FSD EAR HLC AMA INK 75 S
MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 45 SSW SAD 45 NW SAD GNT 4SL ALS COS 50
ENE DGW GCC SHR COD JAC OGD 55 W OGD TWF 60 SW BOI 80 E 4LW 50 N SVE
35 NE RBL 40 W MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NRN
HALF OF CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. 
MEANWHILE...ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER AR/LA SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD TOWARD ERN TN AND AL.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...AND STALLING FARTHER SW ACROSS TN VALLEY AND MS DELTA
REGIONS.  SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS WHERE SERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...BUT
WEAKNESS OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OFFSHORE ORE COAST...IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN
GREAT BASIN AND THEN ENEWD ACROSS WY BY END OF PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM PERTURBATION EVIDENT OVER NRN ALTA/SASK
BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ND/SASK BORDER...TURNING EWD
OVER NRN ND/SWRN MANITOBA BY 16/00Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP DURING DAY OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT AND MOVE SEWD OVER ND.

...MID ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS DIABATIC HEATING
INTENSIFIES DURING DAY...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.  ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE EARLY
AFTERNOON INVOF BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHLANDS OF ERN PA/UPSTATE NY
...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY AND DELMARVA REGIONS BEFORE
WEAKENING.  TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND.  VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND
TO VA PIEDMONT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE GENERALLY INCREASES. MOST
INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS
OVER SRN PORTION OF THIS REGION WHERE 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE IS
POSSIBLE.  FARTHER N...MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES POSSIBLE AMIDST NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- AFTERNOON...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AOA 8.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
CO...SERN WY AND PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE...AS SFC HEATING COMBINES
WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF APCHG MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR DEEP
CONVECTION BY 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
FOOTHILLS...PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND PERHAPS RATON MESA REGION.  EXPECT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW OF THESE TSTMS TO PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
WEAK/RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE EMANATING FROM POST-FRONTAL CONTINENTAL
ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO UNDER ABOUT 400 J/KG AND PRECLUDES
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO
DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

...ND -- AFTERNOON...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AFTER ABOUT 21Z
WHEN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR IS MOST WEAKLY CAPPED BECAUSE OF SEVERAL
HOURS OF OPTIMAL DIABATIC HEATING.  MUCH LIKE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION...MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE...DESPITE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND FRONTAL LIFT.  GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST CELLS...BUT TIME WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE SHORT AND COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED.  THEREFORE WILL
USE ONLY MARGINAL WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS -- NOCTURNAL...
SCATTED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 6Z AS 45-55 KT LLJ
STRENGTHENS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER REGION.  A FEW OF THESE MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...AMIDST GROWING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION...BEFORE END OF
PERIOD.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH END OF
PERIOD.  PRIND PARCELS WILL REACH LFC WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES IN
300-800 J/KG RANGE.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER
OF ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO ROTATE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.