[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141255
SWODY1
SPC AC 141251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
JHW 20 SSE HLG 25 SSW PKB 30 N 5I3 10 SE JKL 25 ENE SDF IND SBN 20
NNW GRR 20 SW OSC 90 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 NNW SJT
25 NNE TYR 35 NNE HOT 45 SSW STL SPI MMO MKE 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 55
N BML 25 S CON 15 SE HYA ...CONT... 30 E ECG 25 WSW RWI 25 E AGS 40
S CSG 10 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TWF 35 NNW SUN
20 N DLN 25 ESE 3HT 50 N REJ 45 NW PIR 40 SSW 9V9 35 S IML PUB GUC
PUC 45 SSW TWF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

VORT MAX OVER SW IL THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA TODAY WHILE BROADER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL
AND WRN U.S. MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD. IN THE PROCESS...NRN PORTION OF
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SE MO
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN MI SWWD THROUGH WRN OR
CNTRL KY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND POOR LAPSE RATES PER
MORNING RAOB DATA. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROM ERN KY...ERN IND...ERN MI THROUGH OH SUGGESTING THESE
AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME HEATING TODAY...BUT GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY AOB 5.8 C/KM MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000
J/KG.

STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
JET FROM 40 TO 50 KT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM
PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY SERVE
AS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELL
THREAT APPEARS HIGHER FROM PARTS OF NRN IND/OH INTO ERN MI WHERE
STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DAMAGING
WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE THROUGH S TX...

STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF NRN MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EWD INTO PARTS OF S AND SW TX WHERE
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR S OF STALLED BOUNDARY.


...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES
ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 05/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.