[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131616
SWODY1
SPC AC 131613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
PSX 15 NNE SAT 55 NNE DRT 60 NE P07 35 NNE BGS 30 S CDS 35 E CSM 25
E PNC 15 NNE COU 25 NNW BRL 30 NNW PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 SW BLV UNO 60
NW LIT 35 NNW MCB 15 SW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 50 S LBB 55
WSW LBB 45 NNW HOB 10 W ROW 4CR 35 N 4SL 20 WSW DRO 40 WSW MTJ 25 W
GJT 30 SE VEL 40 NE VEL 20 ENE RKS 30 ENE RWL 40 N LAR 45 E CYS 35
ENE AKO 15 SSE MCK OLU 35 ESE SUX MKT DLH 80 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SSI 25 SSW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS NEWD TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WILL BE LIFTING NEWD INTO PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN
GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO SWRN OK/SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO
ERN NM. A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS.

LARGE SEVERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SCENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE
40-50 KT LLJ AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH FROM
NERN MEXICO.

...SRN PLAINS...
ACROSS SRN PLAINS THE MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND E OF W TX DRY LINE.
OK AREA IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...REF WW 198.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY OF 20 KT...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY MULTICELL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  THUS LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN DRY LINE AND FRONTAL INTERSECTION
WILL BECOME ACTIVE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...MORE LIKELY

IN NWRN TX.

THE LARGE MCS OVER SCENTRAL TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY
DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE RATHER STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL SLY JET.
SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30KT  AND SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON. 
BOWING SEGMENTS ADDITIONALLY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE. 
REF WW 197.

...LOWER MO VALLEY...

FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MID MS VALLEY...MUCAPES  WILL
RANGE UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG.  THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS PORTION OF
WARM SECTOR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT WHICH SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY
MULTICELL STORMS.  INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND THREAT DURING PEAK HEATING.  LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE
TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW  MAINLY W OF COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

FURTHER N AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS GREAT LAKES...SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF FRONT WILL HOWEVER LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 05/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.