[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112009
SWODY1
SPC AC 112006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40
E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
CMX RST BIE 20 WNW GAG 55 NNW DRT 30 NE P07 35 SSW FST 10 SE TCC 45
NNW GLD 15 WNW AIA 55 NNE RAP Y22 75 NNE DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
PSX 45 E COT PSX 30 NNE PSX 10 NW ACT DAL SHV 15 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC
25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO
30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE
BIL 60 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF
35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB
25 S PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE
SRQ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ND...PORTIONS NEB AND NW
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MN/ERN ND SSWWD
TO W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S AND E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH --
WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
WRN MT.  AS THIS CYCLONE DRIFTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TONIGHT...SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET BETWEEN
NWRN GREAT BASIN...4-CORNERS AREA AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
S TX -- AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY.

AT SFC...EXTREMELY INTENSE FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN SD
CYCLONE ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN. FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN MN...BUT BASED ON
CURRENT ISALLOBARIC TRENDS...WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER ND/SD
BORDER REGION UNTIL SFC LOW MOVES BY DURING THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
SERN WY...WRN NEB AND NERN CO. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM SFC
LOW SD TO INVOF KS/CO BORDER AND TX/NM BORDER...SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB.  DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
FARTHER S.

...GREAT PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
REF SPC WWS 184 AND 185...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...
FOR DETAILS REGARDING NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM SD INTO KS.

SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE FROM MN SWWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NEAR SFC LOW...AND WITH
DRYLINE SWD AT LEAST INTO NWRN KS.  GREATEST SIGNIFICANT/ DAMAGING
HAIL THREAT IS WITH SUPERCELLS IN CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA.  THIS
IS WHERE ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-UPPER FLOW IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH NWRN PORTION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING/LIFT. 
MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASES IN
BOTH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE.  HIGH LCL AND
DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPRESS TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
EARLY CONVECTION -- HOWEVER INCREASING MOISTURE/SHEAR AND DECREASING
LCL INDICATE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LARGER...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE SWD ACROSS W TX...THOUGH
DECREASING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT AND INCREASING DIURNAL DEPENDENCE
OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION OF SEVERE.

...SE TX...
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES WITH
ORGANIZED MCS OVER TX COASTAL PLAINS N-NE OF CRP...THOUGH IT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO AIR MASS WORKED OVER BY NWD MOVING BAND OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL TX.  REF SPC WW 183 AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO.  EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS EXPANDING OUTFLOW COVERAGE
AND LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINE TO REDUCE SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.