[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111622
SWODY1
SPC AC 111619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40
E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
CMX 30 SSW MCW 30 SE LNK 45 N P28 60 NW ABI 35 NNW BGS 45 WSW LBB 40
ESE LAA 35 SE SNY 30 W CDR 40 WSW REJ 45 SSW DIK 60 NNE DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
ALI 20 SE COT 15 WNW SAT 60 WSW TPL 35 WNW ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 WNW LFK
15 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG
15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30
SW AKO 45 E FCL 35 NNW 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL
20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF
35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB
25 S PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE
SRQ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SD SWD THRU NEB INTO
NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER OF HIGH PLAINS NEWD
INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EWD
ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT 12Z. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO WRN SD ATTM WITH SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU
SERN WY INTO SERN UT. PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE
LOW ALONG ND/SD BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN ESEWD THRU SRN
LOWER MI. 50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE
NWD THRU PLAINS WITH LOW/MID 60 DEWPOINTS COMMON IN WARM SECTOR NWD
TO WARM FRONT.

WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS S TX WHERE THERE IS A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE SLY FLOW WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TX COASTAL PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN
SD WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON NERN CORNER CO. RESULT WILL BE A SHARP  N/S DRY LINE
FROM LOW IN WRN SD SWD TO ALONG CO/KS BORDER WITH AIRMASS E OF DRY
LINE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE.  MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE.

AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ROTATE INTO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENT CAP WILL WEAKEN TO ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE AS WELL AS
CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DRY LINE AS
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTO HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
DIURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL BEING DOMINANT INITIALLY.  HOWEVER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
BY THIS EVENING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG
WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A
STRONG TORNADO THIS EVENING IN THE MDT RISK AREA AS FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD
VICINITY DRY LINE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER
BUT AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE.

A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EWD AFTER DARK VICINITY WARM
FRONT AS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD INTO PLAINS.

...TX...
REF WW 183 AND MCD 648
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY FLOW IN TX IS WEAKLY CAPPED.  WITH
ONGOING STORMS AND 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.  THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWS/SHORT LINES SUCH AS THE CURRENT BOW
MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST N OF CRP.

...OH VALLEY EWD TO DELMARVA NJ...
REF MCD 649

AGAIN TODAY A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS
THIS REGION TO S OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN MA WWD
ALONG NY/PA BORDER TO NEAR CHI.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE
PULSE SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT MLCAPE...RANGING UPWARDS TO 2000
J/KG...  ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND
DOWNBURST THREAT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.