[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120040
SWODY1
SPC AC 120037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
IWD 10 E FRM 50 S HSI 40 W P28 25 S SJT 30 NE P07 25 NE FST 25 W AMA
40 NNW GLD 50 NW MHN 25 W PIR 30 N JMS RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC
25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO
30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE
BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM ...CONT... 25
NE ECG 55 WSW ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE
SRQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SWD INTO WRN TX...

...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO WRN TX...
REFERENCE RECENT MCD/S 660 AND 661 FOR LATEST MESOSCALE/NEAR TERM
THREAT ACROSS SD/NEB AND TX.

QUASI-LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING IN PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
1500-2500 J/KG/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL
NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN. FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH
MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
FRONTAL ZONE STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS OBSERVED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
EXPECT ONGOING LINE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN
NEB INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.
LINE MAY TEND TO ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECT NEWD
OUT OF CO INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

ELSEWHERE...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS OVER W-CNTRL INTO
N-CNTRL MN ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
COLOCATED WITH STRONGER AND MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO
WRN TX. ALTHOUGH 00Z MAF/DDC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVE LACK
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

...UPPER TX COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
SRN LA WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST SHOULD
SUSTAIN THIS WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS
THE REGION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF WEAK COLD FRONT
/EXTENDING FROM EWR WWD TO DUJ TO S OF CLE AS OF 00Z/ WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.