[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
ORF 30 ENE CRW LUK 25 WNW SDF 10 WSW EVV 20 NNE MDH BLV 30 N ALN 15
NNW SPI 30 S MMO MKG OSC ...CONT... 10 NNE ART 45 N MSV EWR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
CDS 30 E CVS 10 ENE TCC 40 SW CAO 10 NNE TAD LAR 45 N CPR 40 NNW GCC
25 WSW REJ 45 NNE RAP 15 NNE VTN 40 WSW RSL 10 SSW CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 50 NNW SVC
30 N DRO 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW
NFL 20 ENE SAC 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 N GFK
ABR MHE OFK LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ
...CONT... 15 ESE ORF 55 ESE LYH 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PNC 30 NNE CSM
20 SSW LTS 15 WNW ABI 45 SSE BWD 15 SSE TPL 35 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV 10
SSE MLU 20 W GLH 50 WSW JBR 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 40 S PNC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT
LAKES/NERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE YIELDING
MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH CENTRAL IL AND DETROIT 18Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED...
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE 5-6 KM WINDS SWITCHED TO
NWLY AT THE PROFILER SITE IN NWRN MO AT 17Z...INDICATIVE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WEAKEN THIS
FEATURE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD
FROM ERN MO/IL/IN EWD INTO OH/LOWER MI. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW AT 20-30 KT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.

...NERN UNITED STATES...
AN MCV HAS MOVED FROM NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSIDENCE COVERED MUCH OF NY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OH/PA/WRN NY ARE NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE UNTIL 23Z. 
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF LAKE
BOUNDARIES AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
STRONGER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL
WINDS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NEWD INTO NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...INDUCING STRENGTHING
E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50
DEWPOINTS NWWD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF WY/NERN CO.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THESE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN
MUCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID LEVEL
WINDS OF ONLY 30 KT...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN
50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE VEERING WIND PROFILES/AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
TORNADOES...FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2 SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ..STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. REFERENCE MD 634. 

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER FROM WRN KS/SRN CO SWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE THAN ACROSS NEB/WY...BUT THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE
WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...
PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY WHERE THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LOW/50 DEGREE OR LOWER/...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ERN TEX PANHANDLE
NWD INTO WRN KS.

...TN VALLEY...
DESPITE VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREAT.

..IMY.. 05/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.