[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
GRI 15 WNW SLN 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 25 N LAR 50 S GCC 30
S 4BQ 20 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 W VTN 25 N BBW 15 ESE GRI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
MSS 20 NNW BAF 35 E ISP ...CONT... 35 S WAL 40 S FDY 10 NNW CMI 10
NW BMI CGX 10 NNW GRR 55 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM
30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 25 NW UNO 10 NE UMN 15 WSW TUL 55 NNE CSM 35
NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 55 WNW AUS 60 ESE ACT 40 E LFK 25 ENE GLS
...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 45 NNW LAR 20 S WRL PIH 25 SSE
BAM 40 S SVE 30 E MFR 50 ESE RDM 40 S PDT 50 NNE 3DU 55 N GGW
...CONT... 75 NE DVL 50 W AXN 25 S FRM 25 ESE LSE 70 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LK MI EWD INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS WHILE A TROUGH MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. 
MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS GENERALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH N OF THE BORDER MOVES FROM WRN
ONTARIO TO NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
SWWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SWRN
EXTENSION BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...LK MI AND VICINITY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC...

LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS THIS REGION SOUTHEAST OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT.

MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF PA
/ NY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  WEAK UPPER FEATURE -- AND
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER
MI WILL SPREAD ACROSS PA / NY THIS AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED
LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONGER WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT MORE
NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL-SCALE BOWS
ACROSS THIS REGION.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ERN WY / ERN CO SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
KS / NWRN MO ATTM...AND THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. 
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION
BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BY AFTERNOON...500 TO
1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS.

WITH MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...MODERATE / VEERING
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.  SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD
INTO WRN KS / WRN NEB DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES...BUT THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.