[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110032
SWODY1
SPC AC 110029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
ACY 35 NW SBY 25 WNW NHK 25 NW RIC 25 ESE LYH 15 S SSU 35 WSW MGW 15
W DAY 25 NE IND 10 NNW CMI 15 E BMI 25 S MMO 15 ENE MMO 30 NE CGX 20
WSW GRR 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS 20 W EEN 40 ESE ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
MOT 35 S Y22 50 NW VTN 30 NE MCK 25 S HLC 40 SSW GAG 55 S CDS 35 NE
BGS 25 NNE MAF 40 ESE HOB 35 ENE RTN 15 NE COS LAR 25 NE SHR 80 N
OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK ABR MHE OFK
LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ ...CONT... 30
NE ECG 55 NNW RWI 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20
SE DUG 70 NE SAD 25 E CEZ 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC
15 ESE PIH 40 SSW NFL 50 W RNO 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TUL 20 S END
20 WSW FSI 40 NW MWL 20 S MWL 40 N ACT 10 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV MLU 40
WSW GLH 45 NE LIT 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 10 WNW TUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE SRN GREAT
LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION...

...HIGH PLAINS REGION...
INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG SELY SURFACE WINDS AND A RAPID
NWWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WY/CO AND WRN NEB.
THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM
E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO NERN CO...TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS E-CNTRL CO
/PER 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN
TROUGH IS CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO ERN
CO. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER S INTO SWRN KS AND WRN TX...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL
THROUGH THE 80S AND ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF
THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS FROM ERN
MT INTO WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60KTS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTRL MT. STRONG
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO AID IN RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 750MB. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH
THE BUOYANCY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO NRN MO HAS FOCUSED STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
N-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL
VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY UNIFORM...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS NOTED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH A
DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS
RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AT 40-50KTS. 
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS PLACE ACROSS WRN CT INTO CNTRL MA.

..MEAD.. 05/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.