[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100537
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
WAL 15 N PKB 40 NNE DAY 15 NNE SPI 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA
20 NNE DEN 40 N LAR 55 S GCC 45 S OLF 35 WNW ISN 20 NNW P24 50 SSE
PHP 20 N BBW 10 E OMA 20 SSE ALO 35 E PLN ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM
30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 30 SSE UNO 20 ESE VIH 20 WSW JEF 55 ENE CNU 20
WNW END 30 NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 20 NE HDO 55 SE AUS 35 NNW HOU 25 NE
GLS ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 30 WSW LAR 30 SSE LND 45 SE
SLC 50 ENE TPH 65 W RNO 40 N MFR 15 NE RDM 35 W BKE 35 ENE MSO 55 N
GGW ...CONT... 60 N GFK 50 W AXN MKT 20 ENE EAU 25 NNW MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD AS VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA EJECTS NEWD INTO WRN
QUEBEC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST
WILL ROUND AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROUGH BASE AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH WILL
SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM SERN ONTARIO THROUGH SRN WI INTO CNTRL IA BY MID
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ERN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY FROM LAKE ERIE SEWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION WILL
RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADING
NWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. TO THE
W...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW WRN PORTION OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT TO LIFT NWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN NEB/ERN WY BY EARLY 
EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT
AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ANY ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NY DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HERE...LOW-LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE S/SW COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AT THIS TIME ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF
NY/PA PRIOR TO SPREADING EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF
TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE W ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN PORTIONS OF
NRN IND/IL. HERE TOO...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE
BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED TSTMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE RAPID NWWD RETURN OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 50-55F DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED INTO WRN NEB/SERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG. HEATING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT EWD MOTION INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL  ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON FORECAST HODOGRAPHS.

AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND IN ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA ON NOSE  OF
STRENGTHENING LLJ. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER MAY AUGMENT WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH
LARGE HAIL.

...KS EWD/NEWD INTO MO/IA...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST
FROM ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE  ALONG
EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.