[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100110
SWODY1
SPC AC 100107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
BUF 20 W BGM 10 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 SW DCA 45 WSW MRB
10 ENE HLG 40 SSW FDY 35 ENE LAF 10 N BMI 40 WSW BRL 15 ESE FNB CNK
45 N GCK 50 NE LAA 30 WNW IML 15 SSW MHN 60 SSW MHE 20 E BKX 25 E
AXN 40 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID
...CONT... 40 N HSE 25 NE RDU 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB 40
N LFT 10 SSE ELD 40 WSW ARG 25 SW CGI 45 NE PAH 15 SW LEX HTS 20 SW
PKB 25 SE CMH 45 WNW LUK 15 ESE HUF 35 NE SLO 35 W STL 35 S SZL 15
WNW END 15 NE CDS 10 SSE DRT ...CONT... DUG 35 SE SOW GNT 50 E TAD
10 ENE LHX 30 WSW COS 35 ENE ASE 25 NW 4FC 35 WSW LAR 55 SSE DGW 40
W CDR 50 S PHP 9V9 10 WNW ABR 45 ENE JMS 75 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HQM 35 SW YKM 40
ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM
15 ENE JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS/NEB NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN EWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA
REGION...

...MN/WI SWWD INTO WRN KS...
MATURE BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS CURRENTLY FROM W-CNTRL WI SWWD INTO
SERN MN /S OF THE TWIN CITIES/ MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 40-50KTS.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF CWA
TO N OF MSN AS OF 00Z. HERE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
FED INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM BY STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AND FROM N-CNTRL INTO SWRN NEB. 
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS OF 55-65F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG
PER 00Z OAX SOUNDING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS / MCS/S
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO IA AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

OVER WRN KS...HIGH-BASED DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING 
ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

...SRN GREAT LAKES MI ESEWD INTO PA/NJ...
LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN IL/NRN IND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. NRN
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO ONTARIO OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY FROM CHI EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI
REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS WILL SUPPORT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND/OR JUST
TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS /CURRENTLY OVER WRN WI/ MAY APPROACH WRN PORTIONS OF
LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT

FARTHER SE OVER PA...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS NJ/MD AND NRN DE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY 03 OR
04Z AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE MCD 625.

...ERN NM/WRN TX...
MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS FAR WRN TX INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHEN
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...
AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20KTS AT 500
MB/ ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND COMPONENT IS RESULTING IN 30KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 03Z OR
SO.

...VA SWWD INTO NRN GA...
TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FROM NRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. WEAK FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN DEEP MOIST PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN
ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...PRIOR TO
COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.