[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092009
SWODY1
SPC AC 092006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW
IWD 30 WNW LSE 40 ENE MCW 20 SE GRI 10 WSW BUB 30 ENE MHE 45 ENE ATY
20 NE BRD 60 SW IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 20 SE ORF 20 SSW CHO 25 SSW LYH
CLT 25 SE AND 15 SW AHN 30 ENE RMG 15 E CHA TYS BKW EKN 15 NNE HLG
FWA 45 ESE MMO 25 NNE UIN 10 S MKC ICT 20 SSW P28 35 E LBL 55 WSW
GLD 15 NNW SNY AIA 20 N MHN 20 SE 9V9 25 NNW ABR 30 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 SW SOW GNT 50
E TAD 10 ENE LHX 45 E GUC 20 N GUC 30 S CAG RWL 30 S CPR 40 W CDR 30
WNW VTN 9V9 40 WNW ABR 20 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS BID
...CONT... 40 N HSE 30 ESE LYH 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB
JAN 25 ENE GLH MEM MKL BNA LOZ HTS 20 SW PKB ZZV 30 N DAY 15 WSW MIE
20 ENE MTO 15 WSW STL 25 N SGF 15 N FYV SHV 15 NE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM
15 ENE JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE END 50 ESE GAG
40 S GAG CDS 30 N SJT 60 ENE JCT 45 E DAL 45 W MKO 35 SE PNC 15 SE
END.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS  PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN
NEB/NWRN IA/CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND NWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL
PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN  GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN MN/ERN SD/ NWRN
NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WEST
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO NERN NEB ALONG THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ...BUT MAINLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI NWWD INTO NRN MN. STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.

CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO SELY ACROSS WRN KS. HIGH BASED CU/CB HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SERN WY/SWRN NEB AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL NEB AND THEN TRACKING EWD AS AN MCS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/NRN KS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF AN MCV LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE MI. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. REFERENCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170.

...PA/DELMARVA/NJ...
WARM FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
DESTABILIZE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL PA...
THOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED COVERAGE THUS FAR. DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH WIND
AND ISOLATED HAIL.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S/SW
OF THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
BIG BEND AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCT HAIL/WIND. STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TX PANHANDLE ...BUT
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS PRECLUDES A
SLIGHT RISK.

...APPLACHAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DRY AIR ALOFT.

..IMY.. 05/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.