[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091621
SWODY1
SPC AC 091618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
IWD 15 WNW VOK 15 S ALO 30 WNW DSM 20 SSW SUX 15 NNE FSD 45 ENE ATY
35 NNE BRD 35 SW IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 15 NNW ORF 30 NE EKN 20 NNE HLG
FDY 15 N FWA 45 N LAF 30 NNE PIA 30 S OTM 25 NNW STJ 20 ESE CNK 45
SW RSL 30 ENE LBL 35 N EHA 30 N GLD 25 S 9V9 30 NW ABR 20 NNW JMS 20
WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 30 SSE HEZ
15 NNW GLH 20 NW MEM 40 S PAH 25 NNE LOZ 45 W HTS 20 NE LUK 20 WSW
IND 20 ENE IRK 40 N GAG 65 SSW GAG 65 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 30 SSW FTW
30 N FTW 20 SW BVO 35 SW JLN 30 NNE FYV 30 N SHV 30 NE GLS
...CONT... ILM 20 ENE FLO 15 WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW DMN 25 S SVC
30 SE SAD 20 WNW SAD 30 WNW SOW 30 ENE 4SL 35 W CAO 35 SSW LAA 15 SE
AKO 40 WSW SNY 10 NNE LAR 50 WSW RWL 15 SE RIW 15 E WRL 40 ESE 81V
30 S PHP 10 SW PIR 20 E MBG BIS 40 WSW P24 70 NE LWT 25 NNE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MN WRN WI AND NRN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA WITH
ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS TRAVERSING NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA MOVES EWD WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN MT/NWRN ND SWEEPING SEWD  REACHING NRN
MN SWWD INTO NRN WY TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM FRONT MOVING
NWD THRU MN EWD INTO LOWER MI. AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MOIST
AND EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY TO S OF WARM FRONT.

WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE STRONG HEATING IN WARM
SECTOR...THE CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MDT
RISK AREA. GREATEST INITIAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VICINITY WARM FRONT
AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM SERN ND SWWD
INTO N CENTRAL NEB.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONALLY TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VICINITY WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS AND
PROPAGATE E/SE THIS EVENING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES.

....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT NOW MOVING
INTO SRN LWR MI. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES NEAR WARM FRONT WILL
PROVIDE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

...PA/DELMARVA/NJ...
REF MCD 613
WARM FRONT RETURNING NWD IN THIS REGION AS WELL.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE
WEAKER THAN FURTHER W...HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND
MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE CAP
ERODES.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTI-CELL WIND AND HAIL THREAT
GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR IN THE REGION.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST E OF SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE.  BY MID AFTERNOON THIS LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM
SWRN KS SSWWD INTO TX BIG BEND.  RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES A
SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE MOST ANY WHERE ALONG
AND E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING
HOURS.

...SERN U.S...
REF MCD 612
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.  CAP IS ALREADY WEAK SO STORMS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.