[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 072017
SWODY1
SPC AC 072013

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
HSE 10 SSW DAN 40 NE SDF UIN 25 SE BIE 40 S ANW 9V9 65 ENE STC 35
ESE CWA 10 WSW ARB 30 SSE FKL 15 NE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY
...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55
NNE MTC ...CONT... 40 WSW ERI 25 SSW IPT 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SE
OAJ 10 NW LOZ 40 WSW EVV 30 E COU 25 ESE TOP 25 ENE GAG 50 NE ABI 40
N CLL 30 NE PSX ...CONT... 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM 15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN
40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW MLD ELY 45 N TPH
TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 55 SW DVL 35 NNE MBG 30 ESE
MBG 15 WSW ABR 50 SSW BJI 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

...ERN NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM PA THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO SE NEB.
THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OF
NERN KS AND SERN NEB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG FARTHER EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN
VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME SW
IA. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT AND
WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER
OF STORMS SPREADING SEWD THROUGH WV. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN VA AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED AND
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT SEWD INTO VA. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD SEWD. OVERNIGHT...
STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA WITH
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL

...MT...

HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE
INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN
ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.