[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080039
SWODY1
SPC AC 080036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE
RWI DAN LYH 40 NNW SSU CRW DEC P35 30 SSE OMA LNK GRI BBW ANW 9V9
BRD RHI LAN MFD MGW BWI 20 ESE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX HTL 40 NNE MTC
...CONT... 45 NE CLE LBE 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... 10 NE ILM 10 N CLT 30
SSW 5I3 SDF ALN 45 NE COU MKC PNC LTS 60 SSW CDS BGS SJT TPL CLL 20
SW GLS ...CONT... 50 W MRF 35 WNW GDP 50 SE LVS 10 NW CAO 30 E LAA
10 N HLC MCK IML SNY DGW CPR 10 W RIW 10 WNW OGD 15 WSW EKO 15 W WMC
15 E 4LW 45 N MFR OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID MISSOURI
VALLEY....

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MORE PROMINENT BRANCH OF WESTERLIES REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE JET STREAK CONTINUING
TO NOSE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER
SOUTHERN BRANCH...NOW JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WILL MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR SMALL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA.  CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA.  STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
FRONT EXTENDING OUT THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
...THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN WAKE
OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS WILL
ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING FRONT...LIKELY
SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY
08/06Z.  ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAK...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...
LIFTED PARCELS EMANATING FROM EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPEAR
LIKELY TO POSSESS CAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL IN
STRONGEST CELLS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN STATES...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ALSO APPEAR MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING SHORTLY.

..KERR.. 05/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.