[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071627
SWODY1
SPC AC 071623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE
GSB GSO BLF 20 SW HTS 35 SW LUK 15 NNW DNV 30 SW MLI 35 WNW OTM 45
ESE OMA 25 NW BIE 15 SW HSI BBW ANW 9V9 ATY STC 45 WSW RHI 35 NNE
MTW 20 ENE GRR 25 NNE TOL 15 SSE YNG ABE 20 E NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55
NNE MTC ...CONT... ERI 30 E AVP JFK ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 40 WNW MBG
25 NNW PIR 50 WNW HON 35 SW BJI 45 WNW HIB 50 ESE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY
...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM
15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN 40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW
MLD ELY 45 N TPH TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OAJ 35 SSW GSO
35 ESE TRI 20 WNW JKL 25 SSE BMG 30 SSW BRL 30 WSW STJ 25 S ICT 25
NNW LTS 65 N ABI 45 WNW SEP 50 WSW TYR 50 NE CLL 50 WNW HOU 45 SSE
VCT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPPER MS
VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WLYS ACROSS SRN CANADA EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/NRN OH
VALLEY INTO NERN U.S.  UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE PAC NW WITH A S/WV
 TROUGH MOVING INLAND BY TONIGHT. POLAR HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT
LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS NRN
PA TO CENTRAL IL SEWD TODAY.  WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT INTO SRN NEB
WILL BEGIN WORKING NWD AS WARM FRONT BY TONIGHT AS  SLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...7-7.5 C/KM... HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS
OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. COUPLED WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR S OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY  N OF FRONT FROM NEB EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY.

...OH VALLEY EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST...
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG AND N OF COLD FRONT 
THIS AM ERN OH VALLEY...WHERE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE.  WITH STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF COLD FRONT EWD TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST...AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES
TO 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 50KT COUPLED
WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO
SHORT LINES/BOWS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY E/ESEWD  THRU THE EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU MUCH OF
AFTERNOON. WITH FRONT SHIFTING N ACROSS ERN NEB/IA WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN MN/WI TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPES COULD INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG  IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY
ACROSS SRN MN/NRN WI TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z.  PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
DO INDICATE A SEVERE MCS COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD ENHANCE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
E OF CASCADES. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND HIGH BASED
STORMS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS BY
MID AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES ALL BUT ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE.  WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING NEWD W TX COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.