[Swody1] SWODY1

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS01 KWNS 061959
SWODY1
SPC AC 061956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ART 40 SSE SLK 15 NNW PSF 30 NNE EWR 20 NE LBE 40 WSW PIA FNB 30 SSW
OMA 45 NNE OMA 30 W MKG 90 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP ALM 25 NW
4CR 10 NW LVS 15 ENE RTN 10 NW LHX 25 N FCL 25 S CPR 30 ENE BPI 55 E
MLD 30 ESE BYI 35 W SUN 60 SSE BKE 50 WSW BNO 10 WSW LMT 10 W MFR 30
S EUG 15 SSW SLE 15 N PDX 40 NNW DLS 35 NNW PDT 10 SSE 3TH 40 SE HVR
20 WNW SDY 30 SW P24 30 NNE PIR 30 NE MHE 10 SSE MKT 40 NE RST 45
SSE ESC 80 ENE APN ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 15 S BHB
...CONT... 20 ENE ACY 15 SE EKN 30 W BLF 15 NNE JKL 35 NNW LUK 10
SSW SPI 30 WSW TOP 35 SE DDC 30 SE AMA 30 SE PVW 25 WSW SJT 40 NW
DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S.....

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NE US...


A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
THROUGH SRN IA AND FARTHER SW INTO KS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED NWD INTO THE WARM
SECTOR UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH
AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM IA EWD
THROUGH OH AND SRN MI. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA REMAINS
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAD ADVECTED EWD INTO MUCH OF THE
MID MS VALLEY...AND LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN MUCH OF WARM
SECTOR SUGGESTS THE CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD IN THIS REGION.

THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING FROM OH NWWD
THROUGH NRN IND AND EXTREME SRN LOWER MI WHERE STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING ON ERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE FROM SERN
MI/NRN OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR BY EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZES IN A WEAKER
CAP REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH
PARTS OF OH...PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT SURFACE BASED INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN POST FRONTAL AREA BY
THIS EVENING WHERE COOLER MID THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
WEAKER CAP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


...HIGH PLAINS...

DEEP MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

...SW TX...

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WHERE DEEP MIXING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS. LATEST WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.