[Swody1] SWODY1

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS01 KWNS 070039
SWODY1
SPC AC 070035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART
GFL PSF ABE LBE 10 ENE UNI CMI LWD LNK 50 NW OFK YKN SPW DBQ 30 WSW
GRR 20 ENE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1
15 S BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY HGR EKN CRW LUK MTO MKC HUT GCK AKO DGW
10 N RIW JAC 10 SSE LVM 10 WSW OLF 40 NW ISN MOT JMS RWF 40 SW EAU
OSH MBL 10 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 45 N 4CR 40 SSE
RTN 40 N TCC 45 N ROW CNM HOB 10 NNW MAF 40 ESE FST DRT 40 W COT
LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY....

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC BLOCK...MERGING BELTS OF STRONGER
FLOW EXTEND IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  NORTHERN BRANCH...JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...REMAINS MOST
PROMINENT...WITH INTENSE MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY MIGRATING ACROSS ONTARIO.  THESE FEATURES
WILL PROGRESS INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.  STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE U.S...BUT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING SOUTH OF JET HAS BEEN...FOR
THE MOST PART...INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. 
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO AREAS OF NEW YORK TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH ...NOW CROSSING
MICHIGAN...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND 
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT.

WITH LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG...VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW
YORK BY LATE EVENING.  ALTHOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
STABILIZATION OF NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT MAY MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY SHEARED 40+ KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL.


...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
IN WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES...TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  CAP WILL STILL BE
INHIBITIVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER LATER
THIS EVENING...ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS AXIS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE STORMS SHOULD FORM
ABOVE INVERSION ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERMAL RIDGE
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG.  SHEAR  PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.