[Swody1] SWODY1

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS01 KWNS 061248
SWODY1
SPC AC 061244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
ART 40 SSE SLK 20 ENE ALB 25 SE MSV 25 NNE ZZV 30 WNW SPI FNB 25 ESE
LNK 30 ENE SUX 30 SW ESC 80 ENE APN   .

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP ALM 30 NW
4CR 15 N LVS 10 ENE RTN 10 WNW LHX 20 SW CYS 25 S CPR 35 ENE BPI 55
WSW BPI 25 ESE BYI 25 N SUN 60 NNE BOI 35 WNW BNO LMT 20 WSW MFR 15
SW PDX 35 SSW DLS 25 WSW PDT 3TH GTF 20 WNW SDY 25 SSW P24 40 NE MBG
55 NNE ATY 40 SE DLH 25 S ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 10 SSW
BHB ...CONT... 25 ENE ACY DCA 35 N SHD 50 SE PKB 35 S CMH 15 WNW HUF
40 SE UIN 10 ENE MHK 15 SSE DDC 30 SE AMA 35 ENE LBB 25 SW ABI 50 E
SJT 10 WSW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE.  EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS JET IS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE
INTO QUEBEC TODAY.  IN ITS WAKE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. TAIL END OF THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS
THIS PERIOD.

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD TO IA...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF WI SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY
THIS MORNING.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS NERN WI
INTO NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

THIS MCS WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL LOWER MI.  SRN HALF OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IL SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD.  INFLUX
OF MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH NEAR 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG USING A 80/57
SURFACE PARCEL.

WEAK UPSTREAM JETLET ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS WILL MIGRATE
OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING.  AS THIS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS EWD AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE
REGION...CINH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION
VCNTY LAKE MI EWD INTO LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  BOUNDARY ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE 2-8KM SHEAR
VECTOR WILL INITIALLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY OVER LOWER MI.  A FEW
HOURS AFTER INITIATION...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. 
EVENING KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH FORWARD AND
BACKWARD PROPAGATION GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW.  ANY BOW
ECHO/LEWPS WILL MOVE INTO SRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE AREA TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  TSTMS WILL ATTEMPT TO BACKBUILD UPSTREAM ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD NRN IL AND ERN IA.  THIS FAR WEST...CINH MAY
REMAIN STRONG TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS/POSSIBLE HAIL TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY STATE...
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION
COULD BECOME EFFICIENT FORWARD PROPAGATORS THIS EVENING GIVEN
POSITION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS.  AS USUALLY THE CASE...EWD
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS
TO BE A LEAST A THREAT OF BOW ECHOS/LEWPS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY STATE AND POSSIBLY NRN PA. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVE TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND/NEW
YORK CITY AREA OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
FRONT WILL SETTLE TO ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE
BASED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE VCNTY
SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL KS
WHERE CINH MAY BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO
INITIATE A HIGH BASED TSTM.  GIVEN A STORM OR TWO...ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE MO RVR.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX/SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL ONLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION WITH POSSIBLE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..RACY/GUYER.. 05/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.