[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291944
SWODY1
SPC AC 291942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40
WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN
AIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW
SYR 20 NNE BFD 35 N MFD 35 NNE BEH 60 NE EAU 15 NNE IWD 25 S MQT 20
WSW HTL 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 35 N MSV
20 NW MFD 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC
60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N
SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS
50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S
EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20
N RDU 25 SE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD / NEB / ERN
WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO ERN WY...
INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY TO MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN
SD / NWRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.  UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE
BLACK HILLS.

INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 20 KT AND
AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD / SWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST /
GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC
CONTINUES MOVING EWD.  ALTHOUGH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS INDICATED
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...MODERATELY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM
CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

...PAC NW / NRN GREAT BASIN...
SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS CONTINUE MOVING NWD WITHIN WEAK SLY FLOW
ALOFT ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH.  AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION...AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS LITTLE
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED /20
TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW JUST E OF NRN CA CIRCULATION CENTER MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS / HAIL FROM NRN CA NEWD INTO ID. ELSEWHERE...A FEW LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.

...MIDDLE MS / TN VALLEY REGION...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY / WIND SHIFT LYING
W-E ACROSS CENTRAL AR / WRN TN WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. 
DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENTLY BEING AIDED BY VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE
MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN MS.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...VERY MOIST /
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 06/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.