[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300056
SWODY1
SPC AC 300054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 SE PRC
60 SW ELY 20 NW U31 10 ENE NFL 30 SSE RNO 20 N BIH 55 SSE BIH 60 NW
NID 35 SE FAT 25 NNE SAC 40 ESE UKI 20 N UKI 15 ENE 4BK 35 ESE SLE
30 S EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 80 SW GGW 20 SW MLS 30 E REJ
40 SSW MBG 20 NE 9V9 35 WNW OFK 30 NNW CNK 35 ENE HUT 40 S EMP 30
NNE SGF 35 E MDH 35 NNW HTS 45 WSW EKN 10 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PWM 10 WNW PSF
35 NW IPT 15 SW MFD 20 W SBN 30 NE RST 30 N AXN 60 NNE DVL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NE MN
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 30 TO 40 KT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE GRAND RAPIDS TO
LANSING AREA AS CELLS MOVE INLAND FROM LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHER STORMS ONGOING NORTH OF DETROIT MAY ALSO POSE A BRIEF
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS THE VALLEY
AREAS OF WRN ID...ERN ORE AND NRN CA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SMALL
AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE AREA IN FAR ERN
ORE AND WRN ID WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC NW IS ABOUT 30 KT. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS OR
SHORT-LIVED WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NWD ACROSS THE REGION.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -13 C WILL FAVOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES F WILL FAVOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...HIGH PLAINS...
A LINE OF WIDELY-SPACED STRONG STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE
LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO NW
NEB. THE LBF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT AT UPPER-LEVELS
WHICH IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL OR
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DECREASES.

..BROYLES.. 06/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.