[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40
WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN
AIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
BML GFL 20 WNW ITH 45 NE CLE 30 NNE BEH 45 WNW MKG 30 SSE MBL 40 SE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 20 SSW ALB
25 ENE CLE 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC
60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N
SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS
50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S
EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20
N RDU 25 SE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRTLKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL
NEB/SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGE
CONTINUING OVER THE RCKYS...AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE
GRT LKS AND NEW ENG. CLOSED LOWS WILL LINGER OVER CA AND BC...S OF
PERSISTENT ALASKAN BLOCK.

GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL
REMAIN WEAK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL PLAY THE DOMINANT ROLE IN MODULATING TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ERN GRT LKS TO NRN NEW ENG...
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW N OF LK HURON WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO SW QUEBEC
LATER TODAY...AND INTO NRN ME BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM SW QUEBEC TO NRN LWR MI...SHOULD REACH
THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THIS EVENING AND NRN NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT. 
EXPECT THAT SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL BE
UNINHIBITED...GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE DATA.

COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WI/LWR MI EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN NEW YORK
AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY.  BELT OF MODERATE W/WNWLY
FLOW EXTENDING S OF IMPULSE INTO THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT.  THIS
...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL/DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS...AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

...WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB...
WEAK NWLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD TODAY...RELATIVE TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE CNTRL U.S. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WITH
STRONGEST UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN SD
EXPECTED TO HEAD ESE AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WRN
PARTS OF SD/NEB.  HEATING MAY INITIATE ONE OR TWO STORMS ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER TODAY...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.  IF STORMS
DO INDEED FORM...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT PULSE ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WIND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 20-30 KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR.

...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE/NRN GRT BASIN...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
LATER TODAY ALONG A SW/NE AXIS FROM NRN CA ACROSS CNTRL ORE INTO
WRN/NRN ID.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER REGION TO SUPPORT
STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AVERAGE PWS APPROACHING ONE
INCH.  DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NE
ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS INTO SUSTAINED CLUSTERS...AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR
HIGH WIND/HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 06/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.