[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291302
SWODY1
SPC AC 291301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP PHP 9V9 15 NE BUB 30 ESE LBF 45
NNW IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 ENE PHX
15 SSE SGU 20 NNE ELY 40 S EKO 40 SSE BAM 30 WNW U31 25 ENE BIH 35
NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 50 SSE EKA 35 NNE 4BK 45 E SLE 25 SSW
EAT 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 20 S GDV 20 ESE REJ 45 WNW PIR
35 S ABR 25 ESE BKX 25 ESE YKN 30 E HSI 15 N HLC 40 S HLC 25 NNE DDC
10 NNE ICT 45 ENE COU 35 WNW EVV 15 S LEX 25 S HTS CRW 35 WSW SHD 35
WNW ORF 45 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSM 20 S BFD
TOL 25 SW CGX 10 SE DBQ 40 E MKT 40 SSW BJI 65 NNE DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/SRN SD
AND WRN/NRN NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME TODAY AS THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AIDING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
 MEANWHILE...DAY TIME HEATING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED
TROPICAL AIR MASS.  MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN NM/WRN
TX WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD WRN OK SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NWRN/NRN NEB IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS 20-25
KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NWD TODAY....BUT RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITED FROM RETURNING NWD BY FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH
OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
50S ACROSS NEB/SD COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES AS OBSERVED WITH 12Z LBF RAOB.  

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED
OVER SRN SD AND ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING CONVECTION/
CLOUD DEBRIS.  ALTHOUGH WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 6 KM WILL BE AOB
20 KT...SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS.  WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN
MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  

SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL...AND MAY BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF
EXPECTED INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.

...GREAT LAKES AREA...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND 50+ KT SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS NY/SRN QUEBEC
TO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD ACROSS NRN WI/LOWER MI TODAY...AND EWD ACROSS NY TO NEW ENGLAND
AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM SRN ONTARIO TO SRN QUEBEC. 
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS WI/LOWER
MI...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WRN NY TO THE
UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  MODEST LAPSE RATES AND
LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ UPPER ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
AREAS. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE FORECAST.

...NRN CA/ORE/ID...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS ERN ORE TODAY AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITHIN FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS NRN CA TO CENTRAL ORE...BUT
STRONGER FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER ERN ORE AND ID FOR
MULTICELLS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT...THOUGH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 06/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.