[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290455
SWODY1
SPC AC 290453

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP 20 SSE PHP 45 NNE ANW 15 NE BUB
30 ESE LBF 45 NNW IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PSM 20 SSE PSF
30 NNE AVP 20 S BFD 20 NNE YNG TOL 10 NE SBN 25 NNW CGX 20 W JVL 15
ENE RST 10 W BRD 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 65 ENE HVR 40 WSW GGW 20 W
GDV 50 SE GDV 35 NE REJ 50 N PHP 25 SE PIR 30 WSW MHE 25 SW YKN 30
WSW OLU 10 SW HSI 35 E MCK 20 SSW MCK 25 ENE GLD 50 SSE GLD 20 NW
GCK 30 E DDC 25 NE CNU 25 E TBN 25 NW BWG 50 ENE BWG 45 NNE CSV 40
SSE LOZ 25 SSW 5I3 30 SSW CRW 30 NNE BKW 20 E SSU 45 E LYH 25 NE ORF
...CONT... 10 SSE DUG 35 N INW 30 SSE CDC ELY 45 SSE EKO 40 SSE BAM
30 WNW TPH 30 SE BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 40 S EKA 10 NE
4BK 45 E SLE 30 S YKM 45 SE EPH 15 NNE GEG 85 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND
WRN/NRN NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY STAGNANT LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY.

...HIGH PLAINS AREA...
WEAK LEE TROUGHING SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SELY WINDS TO
ADVECT MID AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...STRONG TURNING OF WINDS FROM SELY TO
NWLY IN THE LOWER 3-4 KM SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THEY MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB. THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST
THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND AND
BRIEF HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE.

...GREAT LAKES AREA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...AS
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN
ONTARIO. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...THOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER MAY
AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND...BUT WITH WEAK  SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN ...AND ONLY VERY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.

...NRN CA/ORE/ID...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH NRN
NV MONDAY EVENING WITHIN MOIST TROPICAL PLUME. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INTO ERN ORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDINGS
WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

..IMY.. 06/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.