[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281620
SWODY1
SPC AC 281617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
CAO 15 SSE RTN 55 NNE SAF 50 E GUC 30 NNW 4FC 10 NW LAR 35 ENE CYS
25 NNW AKO 30 ENE LIC 20 E LHX 30 NNW CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
SSI 30 WNW ABY 40 E LUL 25 ENE ESF 40 S PBF 15 SSW UOX 35 NNE GAD 30
NNW AHN CAE 45 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON
45 S GON ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE
DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE
OSC ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE
DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT 35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC
30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT
RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM....

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD AND EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DELMARVA TODAY AROUND
PREDOMINANT VORTEX ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS WEAK
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PACIFIC COAST
REGION.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SERN STATES.  SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES EXTEND
FROM LA EWD INTO NRN GA. ALSO A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LK ERIE
SWWD INTO AR.  SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEB REACHING FROM
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SERN STATES FROM SERN AR/NERN LA INTO GA/SC...

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX
INTO SRN MS.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER N CENTRAL TX...IN WHICH THE MODELS HINT AT THIS
FEATURE MINORING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...DAYTIME HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE TO 2500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT FLOW WILL BE 30-40 KT ABOVE 1-2 KM ACROSS THE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

...FRONT RANGE OF CO SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM...

SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY
TONIGHT RESULTING IN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND NERN NM. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS ERN
CO...AND UPPER 50S ACROSS NERN NM.  INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG.  SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES INDICATING THE THREAT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WINDS.  ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE NEAR 7C/KM TO
SUPPORT SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.