[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281946
SWODY1
SPC AC 281944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
CAO 35 W CAO 45 W RTN 45 W PUB 25 SSE 4FC 25 S LAR 45 ESE CYS 30 WNW
AKO LIC LHX 30 NNW CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
BVE 10 WSW LUL 15 ESE CBM 35 ESE AHN 45 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW
PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT
35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM
...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25
ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 40 WSW TOL 35 NE MTC
...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SSI 35 SSW AYS
15 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT
RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  LATEST VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE FRONT RANGE HAS
CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO NEAR 70F AS OF 19Z.  LATEST
RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING 74/52 NEAR DENVER SUGGESTS 800 J/KG
MLCAPES AND LITTLE CINH.  THUS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF DENVER CYCLONE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATER ONSET OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING.  

ATTM...AREA PROFILERS DEPICT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/. 
SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE THAT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR BRIEFLY ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF
DENVER.  

...SERN STATES...
DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS TODAY.  SHEARING MIDLEVEL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN MS WITH A
BELT OF 20-35 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM RANGE SPREADING EWD ALONG THE
BASE OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH CNTRL AL TO SC.  VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS
AN AGITATED CU FIELD/TCU FROM CNTRL MS TO CNTRL GA ALONG A WEAK
FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING SEABREEZE TSTMS INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND
FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG OWING TO H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 10C ATOP 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.  WHILE
PULSE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...EVIDENCE OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT FARTHER NORTH WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THE
PROBABILITIES OF MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. 
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENT.  

FARTHER SOUTH IN FL...A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM A DEPARTING
FLIGHT OUT OF MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SUGGESTED AN H5
TEMPERATURE NEAR MINUS 8C.  SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR MORE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING.  GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THEY COLLAPSE.

...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MORE CONCENTRATED TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM NRN NV ACROSS SRN UT INTO
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THESE REGIONS
RESIDE JUST AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME.  ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A SEVERE WIND GUST
OR HAIL.

..RACY.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.