[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281253
SWODY1
SPC AC 281250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 30
NNE AKO 45 E LIC LAA 50 N CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30
NNE MOB 35 SE ESF MLU BHM 40 N GAD 35 SE CHA AND CAE 45 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL
40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW
ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S
GON ...CONT... 15 WSW FHU 60 N TUS 45 ESE PRC 50 E IGM 40 ENE LAS 50
W P38 45 E TPH 60 NE MER 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW ALW
40 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT
RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA AREA EWD TO
COASTAL GA/SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...CO FRONT RANGE
AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RATHER STATIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONE OVER QUE AND MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN
MEX NNWWD OVER ROCKIES TO NWRN CANADA. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS MS/AL/GA THROUGH 29/06Z.

AT SFC...WAVY/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM TIDEWATER
VA/NC AREA WSWWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN AR...CENTRAL/SWRN
OK...AND SW TX/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION.  FRONT EFFECTIVELY HAS
BEEN REINFORCED AND SHUNTED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SWD OVER PAST 8-10
HOURS BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING OVER ERN NM AND TX HIGH
PLAINS.

...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY...ONCE DIABATIC HEATING HELPS BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER FROM
EFFECTS OF CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EWD WITH PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING GUSTS WHEREVER AGGREGATE
COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR TWO
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.  BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON MODIFIED RUC AND
ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS
AND DEEP/RICH MOIST LAYER IN LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.  KINEMATICALLY...EXPECT NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW THROUGH DEEP LAYER...WITH SOME MIDLEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MS VALLEY
TROUGH.  ACCORDINGLY...BELT OF 30-45 KT 700 MB WINDS IS BOTH
OBSERVED IN MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE 29/00Z...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND
PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN ANY
ORGANIZED...COLD-POOL RELATED REAR INFLOW JETS THAT MAY BE
GENERATED.  THIS REGIME MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS SERN VA/NC AREA BY
AROUND 29/00Z...HOWEVER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE CONDITIONAL
OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT CONVECTIVE MODE AND
DESTABILIZATION.  SERN STATES SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 29/02Z...AS AIR MASS STABILIZES FROM
BOTH OUTFLOW PROCESSES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ADJACENT CYS/PALMER/RATON RIDGES.  ALTHOUGH
LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH MEAN RIDGE
JUST W OF AREA -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
CO MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION FOR A SHORT INTERVAL AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS IS WHERE GREATEST PROBABILITIES ARE
ASSIGNED FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. PRONOUNCED VEERING IS FCST FROM SFC
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 4 KM AGL ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...AND
20-30 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS ARE POSSIBLE N OF I-70.
ELY FLOW COMPONENT TODAY SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT RESIDUAL/POST-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UPSLOPE...WITH 50S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER
MUCH OF ERN CO AND MID-UPPER 40S SERN WY.  MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY 21Z...AWAY FROM AREAS OF
CONVECTION...AS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.

...NWRN CONUS...INTERMOUNTAIN W...
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...AS DIABATIC HEATING ON HIGHER TERRAIN
 ELIMINATES CINH.  MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES.  DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  HOWEVER STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSOLATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE.  EXPECT
MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG OVER GREAT BASIN AND SWRN WY TO
AROUND 800 J/KG INVOF WRN ID/NERN ORE/SERN WA.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.