[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280553
SWODY1
SPC AC 280551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30
NNE MOB 35 W LUL 25 NW JAN 50 WSW CBM 40 SW HSV 25 SE CHA 15 WNW AND
30 N CAE 35 ENE CRE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 40
WSW IML 50 NE LAA 40 S LAA 50 N CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL
25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 20 NNW BUB 45 ENE DDC 20 ENE P28 30
ESE CNU 45 W TBN 10 SW STL 10 W MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT...
35 WSW MSS 50 SSW SLK 35 N POU 20 W ISP ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 40 W
SAD 35 S FLG 45 ENE IGM 45 WSW SGU 55 NNW P38 65 NE TPH 20 WSW TPH
60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW
ALW 40 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 25 SE IMT
60 SW IWD 20 WNW BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA
AND SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.
WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...
A WEAKER...BUT CONVECTIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL MOVE
FROM SRN AR INTO AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
...THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING SWD INTO NRN TX/AR/KY BY
MONDAY EVENING.

...ERN MS/AL/GA/SC...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS STABILIZED SUNDAY BY CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WEAK SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOWER 70
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S SHOULD 
YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH 30-35 KT WINDS. EXPECT THAT ONE OR MORE LINEAR
BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH COLD
POOL/FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS RESULTING IN MAINLY A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SO
MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 17Z TO 02Z.

...ERN CO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO NWRN MO BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP TO MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX ARE FORECAST
TO DROP SEWD OVER THE RIDGE AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SBCAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS... THOUGH A
LAND SPOUT OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK..SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO ISOLATED ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...SURFACE TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT UNDIRECTIONAL WINDS THAT INCREASE WITH HEIGHT FROM
700-300 MB...SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE MODE...ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF
SEVERE WIND IS FORECAST ATTM.

..IMY.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.