[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271934
SWODY1
SPC AC 271932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 20 SSW TAD 25 WNW CAO 30 ENE CVS
40 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
AYS 25 S MGR 35 E MSY BTR 30 NW JAN 15 WNW TCL 25 SW AHN 60 WNW SAV
40 NNE AYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH
35 NW EED 55 ESE BIH 45 SE BIH 40 NNW NID 50 N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE
SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE
BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35 NE SNY 10 SW BBW
40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW APN 15 NW
ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25 ESE POF CKV 40 SE
LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML 20 NE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE VRB 20 ENE
EYW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP SOUTH...
KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE ENEWD 30-35 KTS FROM SRN LA EWD INTO PARTS OF GA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  WSWLY H85-7 FLOW OF 30-40 KTS IS BEING
OBSERVED AT SEVERAL PROFILER/VWP SITES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG
SERN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING TX UPPER TROUGH.  AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE CURRENT TSTMS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG.  MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND/APPROACHING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO... ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION.

ACROSS CNTRL FL...TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
SEABREEZES.  H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW MINUS 8C CONTINUE 
RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES.  ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL ACROSS SERN CO
AND NERN NM.  THESE STORMS...AND OTHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN NM...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND GENERALLY PULSE
TYPE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER EAST...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT FROM SERN KS TO THE TX PNHDL.  AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS WEAK AND ONLY ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

...DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN...
UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT GIVEN MORE NEGATIVE
TILT ORIENTATION TO UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.  THUS...WIDESPREAD
ACCAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
THE DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS CAN
ORGANIZE...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION
WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING.
 THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF
ID/WRN MT.  ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.