[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271659
SWODY1
SPC AC 271657

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 15 E TAD 40 WSW EHA 45 E CVS 25
NW MAF 80 SSE MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH
45 WNW IGM 15 SSW P38 65 SW ELY 40 ENE BIH 40 SSE BIH 40 NNW NID 50
N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT
55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35
NE SNY 10 SW BBW 40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT...
20 NNW APN 15 NW ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25
ESE POF CKV 40 SE LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML
20 NE PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
VORTEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
QUEBEC SENDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN
PLATEAU AS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SRN CA
INTO WRN AZ.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM SERN TX ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MS AND NRN AL INTO SERN NC.  AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS NM AND EXTREME W TX...

FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW RELATIVE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO ERN CO.  AIR MASS
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE PROJECTED
TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-
8.0C/KM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HAIL AND SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL.  AIR MASS
IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG.  THIS FIRST CLUSTER OVER SERN MS 
IS WORKING WITHIN EWD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND HAS DEVELOPED A
RAIN-COOLED PUSH TO THE ACTIVITY.  THIS IS RESULTING IN MESOSCALE
ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE.  FARTHER W...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
CONTINUES ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO
RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND THE ACTIVITY.

...SERN PARTS OF AZ...

MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA.  LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WERE
NOTED INDICATING THE THREAT OF STRONG MICROBURST WINDS WITH LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

...NRN PLATEAU...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SE-NW ACROSS WRN MT. 
SBCAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL
COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.