[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271256
SWODY1
SPC AC 271254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
GDP 35 N ELP 35 NNE ONM 45 NNW LVS 30 WNW TAD 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC
30 S LAR CYS 25 SSW SNY 40 WNW GLD 15 E LAA 10 SE CAO 35 SSE CVS INK
50 SSE GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 NNE TUS
45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK 55 SE RBL
MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE
FCA 50 SSE GTF 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 9V9 55 ENE ABR 55 SW IWD 30 SSE
IMT HTL ARB 45 WSW FWA 20 NNE UIN 40 SE IRK VIH 35 SSW UNO 10 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO/NM AND FAR W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
RATHER STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONES
CENTERED OVER WRN QUE AND BC COAST...WRN CANADA ANTICYCLONE...AND
MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THAT HIGH SSEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA INTO
NWRN MEX.  NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD OVER SD/SRN
MN AND IA BY EVENING...THEN EXTEND FROM SERN WI TO NWRN MO BY END OF
PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SRN SD -- IS
FCST TO MOVE SWD/SEWD ACROSS IA/NEB...REACHING LM...NWRN
IL...CENTRAL MO AND NWRN OK BY 28/12Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN KS
LOW ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THEN SEWD OVER WRN AR.  MEANWHILE...ERN
PORTION OF LATTER FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER FROM CAROLINAS WSWWD
ACROSS NRN AL/MS INTO AR.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY -- FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER AREAS OF ADJACENT
PLAINS RIDGES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR BANDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHAT
WINDS THERE ARE WILL POSSESS PREDOMINANT ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT.
 RESULTANT ASCENT OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ONTO DIABATICALLY
HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD OVERCOME CIN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AND
LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THOUGH SMALL 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS
AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 20-30 KT MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO EVENING
BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND
SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS.

...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS...PERHAPS REACHING WRN MO AND/OR NWRN OK. 
BROAD AREA OF NON-SEVERE TSTMS OBSERVED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...PRIMARILY N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  AS AIR MASS
NEAR FRONT DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WILL
BECOME MORE SFC-BASED...WITH 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  ETA...SPECTRAL AND RUC MODELS ALL
SHIFT/EVOLVE CONVECTIVE PRECIP SWD AND EWD ACROSS MORE OF KS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH SOME VARIATION IN DETAILS. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
INDICATED MCV OVER SWRN KS...WHICH MAY DRIFT EWD TODAY TOWARD THIS
AREA AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. 
HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BELT AROUND CANADIAN LOW.  AS
SUCH...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SMALL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...PARTICULARLY INVOF BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS. PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT REMAINS TOO
LOW ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK OUTLOOK.

...NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR NW...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON --
ESPECIALLY OVER HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN -- WITH SOME CLUSTERING OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY EVENING.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG -
OBSERVED IN 12Z OTX RAOB - SHOULD BECOME SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE
AS SFC HEATING AND AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS
REACHING SFC WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
PERIOD...PRESENTLY OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS SE TX BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF SWATH FROM CENTRAL TX TO GA AND FL.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST
ADIABATIC...DIURNAL HEATING AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO
MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS.  NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF AROUND 15-25 KT IS FCST BETWEEN ABOUT 30N AND
FRONTAL ZONE...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO
A FEW LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DOWNBURST
WINDS CAPABLE OF DAMAGE.  THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR FOCUSED ENOUGH ATTM
TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH
EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MAY RESULT IN MORE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.