[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270449
SWODY1
SPC AC 270448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
GDP 35 N ELP 15 WNW ONM 50 SSE ALS 30 ENE ALS 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC
30 S LAR 20 SSE CYS 40 S IML 55 SE GLD 25 SW GCK 35 SE DHT 40 SSE
CVS 25 SSE INK 50 SSE GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 50 SSE GTF
50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 40 NW HON 55 ENE ABR 10
NNW AXN CWA 35 S MBL 25 NW AZO 35 WSW FWA 25 N UIN 35 ENE SZL 20 NNW
SGF 40 ESE HRO 45 SW LOZ 15 NNE TRI 10 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU
50 W SAD 45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK
55 SE RBL 10 SE MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER
TX IS SHEARED ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. IN THE
WEST...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY MONDAY.

DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST OF WHERE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS MAY
DEVELOP. WHILE MOST FOCUSED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EJECTING
SRN STREAM IMPULSE ACROSS TX...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THESE AREAS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY. STRONGEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
SITUATION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AND CO INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX
PNHDLS APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. AFTER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLEARS THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL
BE HEATED BY STRONG SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS IN PAST DAYS...ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES/LEE TROUGHING...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...OTHER
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT REMAIN POORLY DEFINED. MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL S/SELY FLOW TOPPED BY
20-25KT N/NWLY WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ACQUIRE
GREATER ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO SRN ROCKIES WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLLAPSING PULSE AND
MULTICELL STORMS.

...SOUTH...
BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED WITH
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY
AHEAD OF EJECTING TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. RICH MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD FUEL A FEW STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS WHICH MAY FURTHER
ORGANIZE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINES AS IN PAST DAYS. MESOSCALE
FEATURES YET TO FORM MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TARGET HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF FL.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS KS...AND WEAK COLD
FRONT SPREADING ACROSS NEB/IA/IL...WILL BE PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTION ACROSS NEB/KS AREAS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO POCKETS OF
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR WHILE WEAKER LAPSE
RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO THE
NORTHEAST...OVER IA/IL. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A FEW HAIL
AND WIND EVENTS BUT ANTICIPATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.