[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261937
SWODY1
SPC AC 261935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
GCK 40 SSE LBL 20 SE DHT 45 WNW TCC 30 N LVS 35 SW PUB 20 WSW COS 15
W CYS 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 15 W GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
JAX 30 NNE CTY 35 N AQQ 15 SSE PNS 30 SW MOB 35 NW MOB 55 SE MEI 10
SW MGM 60 SSE MCN 40 WSW CHS 15 S CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 35 WNW SOW
SGU 70 WNW P38 30 S TPH 45 S BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL
RNO LOL 20 NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW
LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW
TRI 15 ESE DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL
AREA INTO THE SERN STATES...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
RIVERTON VWP AND MEDICINE BOW PROFILER DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CNTRL WY.  SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CO AND
THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS 30-40 KTS IN THE 3-4KM RANGE.  TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE PLAINS.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS MOVING
ACROSS CO/SERN WY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BRIEF TSTM ORGANIZATION
MAY OCCUR WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL. 
HOWEVER...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED AND SINCE
MEAN FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NWLY WITH TIME...A FEW LINE SEGMENTS
MAY SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE MORNING SPEED MAX THAT EJECTED
FROM THE BASE OF PAC BASIN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
LI/S AROUND MINUS 3C EXTENDING FROM NERN WA INTO ERN ORE AND ID. 
THOUGH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL DELAY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS...NEXT DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY
APPROACHING WRN ORE AND WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ATOP INSTABILITY AXIS
THIS EVENING.  THUS...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  A FEW TSTMS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

...SERN STATES...
SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING ENEWD ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA AND WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE COAST
BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND BRUNSWICK.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS SERN LA AND MAY AFFECT AREAS OF SRN AL THROUGH
EVENING.

...PARTS OF TX/SRN OK...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CNTRL TX.  MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
TX.  THE ENTIRE REGION RESIDES IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.