[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261634
SWODY1
SPC AC 261632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
RTN 15 W COS 10 ESE LAR 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 25 W GCK 10 S LBL 30 E
DHT 30 SE RTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
JAX 25 NE CTY 30 E PFN 30 NNW PFN 20 N DHN 60 SSE MCN 15 S CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW
SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 20
NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50
NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW TRI 15 ESE
DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL AND SRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERMOUNTAIN PAC NW...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN
CO AND ERN WY THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF MID 50SF SURFACE DEW
POINTS.  THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...IT
WILL REMAIN NWLY AND ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY FORM BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF NUMEROUS SURFACE
BOUNDARIES OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN KS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.  DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH
A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY FORMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY DRIFTS SEWD.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

...PAC NW INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOW BE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.
APPEARS SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NNEWD
ACROSS WA LATER TODAY...AND INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO
ERN WA AND PARTS OF ID.  12Z SOUNDING FROM OTX REMAINED FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THIS SUPPORTS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN INTO
N-CENTRAL WA.  GIVEN FURTHER HEATING...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE AND LATER STORMS INTO THE MID
EVENING.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GA/SRN SC COAST...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA TODAY...WHERE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF OLD SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W OVER SOUTH GA. 12Z SOUNDING FROM JAX
INDICATES SOME DRYING ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY STORM ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN AL...WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY FURTHER INCREASE AND
RIDE ENEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON.  25-30 KT OF
WSWLY FLOW AT 3-6 KM / EVIDENT ON VWPS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN
AL / SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND
INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA.

...ERN TX...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...WITH CLEARING/DRY
SLOT SUPPORTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
TX THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND
DRY SLOT SHOULD THEREFORE FILL IN WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
UNDER -10C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET.  SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. 
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WV
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY. 
OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND ISOLATED.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.