[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260556
SWODY1
SPC AC 260554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
FCA 25 ENE MSO 55 SSW 3DU 20 WNW 27U 80 NNE BOI 25 ESE BKE 30 ESE
PDT 50 NNW ALW 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WSW SOW
SGU 70 WNW P38 15 NW TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL 15 SSW
RNO 15 NW LOL 65 E 4LW 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80
N GFK 20 SSE DLH 30 NW LSE 30 WSW OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB 15 SSW
EMP 10 NE BVO 20 E FSM 45 SSW JBR 25 ESE MKL 35 NW CSV 30 NE TRI 10
S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 NNW PSF 25 NE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WILL AGAIN BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE
FEATURE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW OF MODEST INTENSITY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DIGGING SWD OVER
ALBERTA AND ON THE ERN FLANK OF OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS...WILL
COINCIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NEWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA/NWRN
WA TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND
NRN ROCKIES. THE ALBERTA SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREADS INLAND OVER ERN WA/NERN ORE.

IN THE SOUTH...WEAK/RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE TN VALLEY WWD TO SRN OK/NRN TX...AND THEN
W/NWWD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND FL. A BELT OF STRONGER SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGH OVER TX AND ERN GULF/FL UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH TODAY.

...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
THETA-E ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ BY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING SHEAR. TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY BE GREATER
THAN PAST FEW DAYS GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. POCKETS
OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS BUT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING BOTH MICROBURST WINDS
AND HAIL.

...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/FL...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE/MAINTAIN NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVITY. LASTLY...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZES
WILL LEAD TO VIGOROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FL. ALMOST ALL OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL
STORMS...WILL OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. A
FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL BANDS MAY EVOLVE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER
WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERALL...RELATIVELY WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO FRONT RANGE...
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL DOMINATE. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INTENSIFYING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE FORM UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LEE TROUGH WILL COEXIST WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN CO AND NERN NM BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCE A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS. OTHERWISE...BULK
OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.