[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260054
SWODY1
SPC AC 260052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW
MFE 35 S CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
MLB 10 WSW FMY ...CONT... 20 S MOB 55 S SEM 25 NE DHN 50 SSW AGS 15
W CAE 15 ESE CLT 20 SE GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 NNE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 S PRC 40
NNE LAS 60 N DRA 15 NNE TPH 40 NE BIH 65 ESE BIH 40 N NID 30 NW NID
45 E FAT 55 S TVL 35 WNW TVL 45 WNW RNO 15 NNE RNO 10 WNW NFL 25 ESE
LOL 30 WSW BNO 60 SSW PDT 20 SE EAT 50 E BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR
85 SSW GGW 15 NE SHR 40 SSE 81V 50 NW VTN 25 NNE ANW 55 NNE BUB 35 N
GRI 45 SSW EAR 55 S HLC 40 N GAG 30 NE CSM 15 SW OKC 30 SSE MKO 35
SSW HRO 25 SSW PAH 15 WSW SDF 25 SW HLG 25 SE PSB 30 N AVP 15 E MPV
30 S HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SOUTH TX...

...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
A WAVE TRAIN OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A
SERIES OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN
TX...ENEWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST/WRN FL PNHDL...AND NEWD INTO THE
ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WAS
NOTED WITH THE ARC OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND COUPLED WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT PER AREA
VWP DATA...SEVERE WIND/BRIEF TORNADO HAZARDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS
STORMS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOPS ACROSS NRN GA. DIVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS
CONTINUING TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING. BROKEN LINE OF CELLS MOVING INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS ERN SC/SERN NC WILL POSE GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

OVER TX...WIDESPREAD MULTICELL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED
INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS. ONE CLUSTER WAS NORTH
OF I10 AND BETWEEN I35 AND I45...THE OTHER CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SERN TX GULF
COAST. LIMITED SHEAR AND WEAK BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED AND DIURNAL
STABILIZATION INCREASES. GREATEST CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
MARGINAL HAIL REPORT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX.

...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALSO EFFECTIVELY UTILIZED MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN NY/SRN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS NEAR WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER LOWER DELAWARE
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MOST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
LOW...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY WIND/HAIL HAZARD WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT.

...ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY...UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND/OR WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA OF THE WEST FROM THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IN PAST
DAYS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL
HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNDOWN. OVER SERN WY/NERN CO...GREATER SHEAR AND INCREASING
HIGH PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS...AND A SMALL CHANCE
FOR HAIL...INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY LONGER-LIVED SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SERN CO
AND NERN NM WHERE MODEST LOW LEVEL AND POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY FUEL A SMALL MCS DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL.

..CARBIN.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.