[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261247
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
FCA 15 NNW HLN 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 20 SW 4OM
40 NNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW
SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 40
SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50
NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP BVO 10 ESE FSM MKL TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15
SW PSF 30 ENE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN WA...NRN ID...NERN
ORE...WRN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY STABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM...WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER
NWRN NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC.  ANCHORING THIS BLOCK IS
STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE SSEWD ACROSS ID TO
NWRN MEX.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVER S-CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER AND OFFSHORE WA
COAST. SASK/ALTA TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SWD TOWAD NRN MT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. 
EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE
REGION...WHILE BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX.  

AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TIDEWATER REGION
WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NC...UT WILL ACT AS BOTH
FOCUS AND EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR SUNTROPICAL/GULF AIR MASS AND
GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER DIXIE.  

...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME AGGREGATING INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OR BANDS -- ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
 CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BOTH OVER DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...AND IN REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG ERN FLANK OF MTNS.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL.  A FEW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER BASINS/VALLEYS AND RELATIVELY EARLY IN
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST THERMAL FORCING
AND VERTICAL STRETCHING OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY.  

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE GIVEN
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS RELATED TO RECENT PRECIP.  INSABILITY
ALOFT -- ALREADY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY
WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ON WRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH APCHG NRN MT. 
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- I.E. 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM -- AND SFC DEW
POINTS AS HIGH AS 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1000
J/KG.  ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR ARE
FCST...ENOUGH COVERAGE OF COVNECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK.

...GULF COAST STATES...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL LA COAST MAY PRODUCE
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO...REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1424 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.  OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOTU
AFTERNOONH AND EVENING...INITIALLY INVOF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY.  MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVEREGNCE AND STORM
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION EWD OVER LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHERE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT NE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...SFC DW POINTS 70S
F...AND FAVORABE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION.  MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE...HWOEVER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ARE LIKELY...PRECLUDING OUTLOOK OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE
EVENT.

...FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNONO INVOF SEA BREEZE
FRONTS...AUGMETNED LOCALLY BY INTERACTIONS OF OUTFLOW AND OTHER
BOUNDARIES.  A FEW OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGIGN WET
MICROBURSTS.  GIVEN WEAK AMBIENT FLOW WITH SLY LOW-MIDLEVEL
COMPONENT...BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD CONVECTION
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT OVER SOME PORTIONS
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL FL.  MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
MODIFIED TBW RAOB.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.