[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251956
SWODY1
SPC AC 251954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
EWN 30 SW FLO 25 SW CAE 25 WSW AND 20 SE AVL 35 E HKY 35 SSW ROA 20
E SSU 40 S EKN 30 SE PSB 25 S ALB 15 SW EEN 25 NE ORH 15 ENE BDL
JFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
DRT 20 W HDO 10 NNE SAT AUS 55 NNW VCT 35 WSW NIR 45 SSW ALI 20 WNW
MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 50 NE GTF
15 SSW LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE
BUB 30 S HSI 45 N DDC 35 SSW LBL 20 ESE AMA 55 SSE CDS 35 WNW MLC 25
E MKO 30 SW HRO 15 NE UNO MDH 10 SW MIE 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N
SYR 25 ESE SLK 30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25
E MTW 25 NW OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW
TUS 65 SW SOW 55 ESE PRC 15 SSW PRC 40 SE IGM 40 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38
55 NNE TPH 45 NW WMC 65 ENE 4LW 35 NW BNO 35 NW PDT 30 SSE YKM 50
ESE SEA 40 E SEA 60 NE SEA 65 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX...

...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER NJ/PA/VA RIDGE TOPS AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM WRN MA INTO CNTRL PA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSING NWD
INTO THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.

LIMITING FACTORS TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO
BE THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY 18Z STERLING RAOB. 
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO
REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN
TO VEER AND INCREASE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OH VLY SWINGS
EWD.  GIVEN INCREASING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST
WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.  SLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS LONG ISLAND
INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SERN VA AND THE CAROLINAS...
PERSISTENT SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER OVER SERN VA WILL LIKELY MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 21Z.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS CLUSTER
EXTENDS WWD INTO NRN NC.  TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
EVENING.  MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO...THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK...RESULTING IN WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR.

...FL...
BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW...WILL LIKELY COLLIDE AND PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  MORNING RAOBS SHOW MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C AND GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS SHOULD RESULT.  ACTIVITY WILL
WANE AFTER SUNSET.

...S TX...
AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS S TX...BETWEEN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE RIO GRANDE.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  TSTMS THAT
DEVELOPED BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS
WEST OF SAN ANTONIO APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A COLD POOL.  THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO PARTS OF S TX/THERMAL RIDGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...A SMALL AREA OF S
TX MAY EXPERIENCE PULSE SEVERE TSTMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO
LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. 
NONETHELESS...FAVORED NWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME AND AT LEAST SOME
INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTM
CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING.  MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS
ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.