[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251627
SWODY1
SPC AC 251625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
HSE 30 SW CAE 30 N AHN 30 SSE TYS PSK 10 W HGR 40 SE IPT 25 SSW ALB
25 NE PSF 15 ENE BAF 10 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX
20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 25 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38 60 NE TPH 45 NW
WMC 55 NE 4LW 45 WSW BNO 45 SW PDT 25 NW ALW 30 SW EPH 45 ESE SEA 20
NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE
BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI
35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25
WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N SYR 25 ESE SLK
30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25 E MTW 25 NW
OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO
SW NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL...

...SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF SRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE/WEAK LAPSE RATES IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA...WITH SUBSEQUENT CLOUDS FURTHER
INHIBITING HEATING WITHIN THIS PLUME TODAY.  HOWEVER NORTH OF THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS...HEATING WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE DELMARVA NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND /SHOULD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
SERN NY...CT AND WRN MA/.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S
INTO NRN MD/SERN PA...WITH FURTHER HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 
THIS HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG NRN EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...SUGGESTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN PA/SRN NY BY THE MID
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES.  A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL
VA...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AND THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODEST FROM ERN PA INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE OVERSPREAD BY 40
KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM.

SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NRN VA/MD BY THE MID
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN PLACE. 
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION AND AN INCREASED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED
TO INSTABILITY...WITH SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW STABILIZING
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SECTIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH...SRN STREAM WAVES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TODAY.  HERE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  REGION
WILL REMAIN WITHIN BELT OF 40-45 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINES.

...FL...
UNSEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL BOOST
CAPES INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY TODAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING.  THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...DEGREE OF HEATING /DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
SUPPORT AREAS OR CLUSTERS OF RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
MICROBURSTS...WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIA/EYW/XMR INDICATING VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DRY MID LEVELS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL THETA-E PLOTS FOR ENHANCED DOWNBURSTS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING
SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RATHER MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT /H5 WINDS
FROM 20-30 KT/.  EXPECT A FEW CLUSTERS OR AREAS OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL
COVERAGE/SEVERITY APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR SLIGHT RISK OVER SUCH
A LARGE AREA ATTM AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.