[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251259
SWODY1
SPC AC 251257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
ECG GSB SOP GSO CHO HGR CXY MSV BAF PVD 20 ESE BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR
35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30
SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE
UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 25 NW RUT 15 N HUL
...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N TVC 55 ENE GRB 25 NW GRB 40 ENE AUW IMT
30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW
P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH
TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 45
NW RDM 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NC PIEDMONT NEWD TO SWRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES WILL REMAIN STRONG CYCLONIC
VORTICES CENTERED OVER SERN HUDSON BAY/NWRN QUE REGION...AND OVER
NERN PACIFIC AS PART OF OMEGA BLOCK.  THIS IS A VERY STABLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN AND AS SUCH SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD. 
SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO
ORBIT HUDSON BAY VORTEX...IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.  BROAD/WEAK
BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/SRN TX.  EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MS -- SHOULD STRETCH ITS VORTICITY
FIELD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...AMIDST
CONFLUENT FLOW.

AT SFC...OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN NY...WRN PA AND OH VALLEY
IS FCST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH PERIOD. SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT OVER TIDEWATER AREA
THROUGHOUT TODAY -- POSSIBLY IN FORM OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND
BAROCLINIC ATTACHMENT OF WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN
VA.

...NERN CONUS...
MOST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAIN OF SMALL NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN N OF SFC FRONT.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
VERTICAL SHEAR JUST S/SE OF FRONT -- AND NEAR SRN RIM OF STRONGER
BELT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE EVENING.  EXPECT FAVORABLE INSOLATION DURING MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON -- AFTER STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS ERODE WHERE NOW
PRESENT...AND AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NOW
OVER TN VALLEY AREA.  ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S TO
LOW 70S F THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...DECREASING
WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT.  KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N-E OF SFC LOW. DEEP-LAYER SPEED
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 35-45 KT MOST AREAS.

...FL...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY -- WITH CONVECTION
INITIALLY INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS THEN DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SEASONALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA -- 7-8
DEG C/KM IN LOW-MIDLEVELS.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS
COMMONLY IN 70S F TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES APCHG 4000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW AND SHEARS WILL BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
UNUSUAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH ENOUGH WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK.

...ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT HIGH TERRAIN FROM W
TX TO NRN ROCKIES...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER
TERRAIN IS MOST STRONGLY HEATED.  WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY
SPOTTY AREAS OF IDEAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY OVER
NRN ROCKIES INVOF WRN MT AND ID.  HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN NM TO AROUND
500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS ID/WRN MT.  DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO
MID-UPPER RIDGE.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ORIGINATING
OVER WY TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL AND WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.